Writing for founders who want the numbers behind the news.
Baseline every Friday: the numbers behind the week's news and what they mean for a growing business. Insights occasionally: first-person pieces from Ross Radford on finance, endurance and building the business behind the numbers.
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Every edition and article.
Baseline is the weekly read on the numbers behind the news. Insights are occasional first-person pieces from Ross Radford.
Oct
Week ending 2 October 2026 - Growth revised up as households save, confidence drops 12 points, and Myprotein moves into soup
The quarterly national accounts revised Q2 growth up to 0.5% with households saving the gains, Lloyds’ Business Barometer dropped 12 points to a 17-month low with over half of firms planning price rises, and Myprotein took its brand into chilled soup under licence with Kirsty’s.
Sep
Week ending 25 September 2026 - Borrowing overshoots before the Budget, growth cools as costs rise, and first CBD authorisations near
Public sector borrowing overshot at £18.3 billion in August, the second-highest August on record, the flash PMI showed growth cooling to a three-month low as cost pressures returned, and the FSA board backed Britain’s first CBD novel-food authorisations, sending recommendations to ministers.
Sep
Week ending 18 September 2026 - Bank holds at 3.75% with inflation heading for 4%, and Holland & Barrett backs wellness founders
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote with three members preferring a rise, CPI climbed to 3.1% with the Bank now expecting inflation above 4% by early 2027, and Holland & Barrett became founding retail partner of a new accelerator preparing wellness founders for retail.
Sep
Built before you need it
Bear Grylls on where resilience comes from, and the three places a founder-led business builds its own.
Sep
Week ending 11 September 2026 - Waitrose takes premium wellness mainstream, first rise in permanent hiring since 2022, and retail growth halves
Waitrose opened premium wellbeing bays in 52 shops and called it a supermarket first, the KPMG/REC report recorded the first rise in permanent hiring in nearly four years, and retail sales growth halved to 0.7% as consumer demand cooled at the end of summer.
Sep
Week ending 4 September 2026 - government borrowing costs at a 28-year high, Nestlé exits mainstream supplements, and growth without hiring
Government borrowing costs touched a 28-year high ahead of the 28 October Budget, Nestlé agreed a US$1 billion sale of its mainstream supplements business to focus on premium science-led brands, and services activity hit a four-month high while employment fell for a 23rd consecutive month.
Aug
Week ending 28 August 2026 - the energy cap rises 4% for winter, Applied Nutrition expects 50% growth, and the Budget is set for 28 October
Ofgem set the winter price cap 4% higher with VAT coming off electricity, Applied Nutrition expects revenue up 50% to £160m with next year’s outlook raised, and July’s borrowing overshoot opens the run-in to a 28 October Budget.
Aug
Week ending 21 August 2026 - inflation rises to 2.9% on energy, the hiring market keeps loosening, and the ASA closes a testimonial workaround
July inflation rose to 2.9% as Ofgem’s 13% cap increase fed through to gas and electricity, vacancies fell to 707,000 with pay pressure easing, and the ASA ruled that blurring health claims in customer testimonials does not remove their meaning.
Aug
Week ending 14 August 2026 - John Lewis bets on wellness, July demand moves online in the heat, and Shopify grows 34% as AI orders emerge
John Lewis commits four stores to sports and wellness, July retail sales grew 1.3% with the heat moving demand online, and Shopify’s second quarter pairs 34% revenue growth with orders from AI assistants starting to register.
Aug
Everything counts
A goal does most of its work long before you reach it, in what it makes of the person chasing it.
Aug
Week ending 7 August 2026 - shop prices held down as costs build, essentials lead Amazon’s growth, and UK manufacturing slows
Shop price inflation slowed to 0.9% as retailers held shelf prices through promotions while their costs build, Amazon’s online store sales rose 15% with everyday essentials growing fastest, and the UK manufacturing PMI was revised down to a four-month low.
Jul
Week ending 31 July 2026 - the Bank holds 6-3, online’s highest retail share since 2021, and pay-per-sale acquisition arrives in the UK
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote with the dissent arguing for a rise, online took 29.4% of June retail spending, its highest share since April 2021, and Shopify opened pay-per-sale Shop Campaigns to UK merchants.
Jul
Week ending 24 July 2026 - pay growth cools as the jobs market loosens, inflation eases ahead of the rate decision, and functional health drives food and drink M&A
Pay growth cooled to 3.4% as the jobs market loosened, inflation eased to 2.6% ahead of the Bank’s 30 July decision, and functional health drove an 18% rise in UK food and drink M&A.
Jul
The selling you can’t outsource
Two habits from Dame Prue Leith’s Xerocon conversation: selling your own work, and growing on money you already have.
Jul
Week ending 17 July 2026 - the economy returns to growth, a £6.5bn boost to the Growth Guarantee Scheme, and how GLP-1 is reshaping the supplement market
The economy edged back to growth in May, the Chancellor added £6.5bn to the Growth Guarantee Scheme, and the supplement market kept reorganising around GLP-1, with a course record on Corsica to close.
Jul
The margin that protects the mission
What Louis Theroux’s conversation at Xerocon says about running the numbers without losing the reason you started.
Jul
The 10x question
A line from Xerocon on where the value of AI actually sits, and a session that showed what it looks like in practice.
Jul
Week ending 10 July 2026 - where the Bank sees debt pressure building, what HMRC’s tax gap figures mean for smaller companies, and a proposed Direct Debit change for VAT and PAYE
A quieter news week, so a look further down the track: the Bank of England on where debt-servicing pressure is building, HMRC’s finding that smaller companies are now most of the tax gap, and a consultation that could make Direct Debit mandatory for VAT and PAYE.
Jul
Week ending 3 July 2026 - household income falls, retail trading hits a two-year low for the season, and the cost backdrop holds firm
Real household income and the saving ratio both fell even as GDP grew, June retail trading was the weakest for the season in over two years, and businesses are still weighing conflict and energy risk into their plans.
Jul
The level you fall to
A talk on resilience, and the financial practices a business leans on when pressure arrives.
Jun
Week ending 26 June 2026 - the economy contracts again, politics shifts, and the pound looks stretched
A second month of contraction with services at a three-year low, a change of prime minister and the planning question it raises, and Goldman calling the pound the most overvalued currency in the G10.
Jun
Principles are few
Two ideas from Andrew Huberman’s HX26 talk, applied to how a founder runs the numbers.
Jun
Week ending 19 June 2026 - the Bank holds as services inflation climbs, and scrutiny tightens on health brands
Inflation steady on the surface while services run hot and the Bank holds, the ASA's latest rulings turning ad claims into a spend-and-risk question, and what Danone's move for Huel says about building for exit.
Jun
Negative splits for founders
The two races a founder runs, and why the second is a financial one.
Jun
Week ending 12 June 2026 - the economy stalls, protein costs spike, and the margin squeeze persists
April's first monthly contraction of the year, a global whey shortage pushing protein costs to record highs, and the margin squeeze sitting under a smaller-price-rises headline.
Jun
Week ending 5 June 2026 - OECD jobs warning, manufacturing cost pressure, and a shifting supplements market
The week's labour-cost signal, the pricing warning under a strong manufacturing figure, and where challenger supplement brands are taking share.
May
Week ending 29 May 2026 - Q1 growth holds, employment law shifts, and SME confidence climbs
A strong quarter with a softer picture underneath, the cost-base question inside the Employment Rights Act, and the cash-flow pattern beneath rising confidence.
May
Week ending 22 May 2026 - inflation eases, retail softens, and the supplements sector sets its bets
A single month of easing against the Bank's own profile, the detail hidden under a weak retail headline, and where the sector is placing its growth bets.
Apr
My why
Why I'm building Phoenix Advisory, and the thread running through it.
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