A weekly view from Phoenix Advisory for founder-led businesses. The numbers behind the week's news, and what they mean for yours.
Baseline publishes every Friday across the mailing list, LinkedIn, and here on the website. Each edition reads the week's macro, sector and regulatory developments for founder-led UK Ltd businesses, with a particular eye on health optimisation brands, and draws out the questions worth taking into your own numbers.
New editions arrive in your inbox every Friday. One email a week, and an easy unsubscribe whenever it stops being useful.
Editions are listed newest first. Each links to the full read.
Shop price inflation slowed to 0.9% as retailers held shelf prices through promotions while their costs build, Amazon’s online store sales rose 15% with everyday essentials growing fastest, and the UK manufacturing PMI was revised down to a four-month low.
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote with the dissent arguing for a rise, online took 29.4% of June retail spending, its highest share since April 2021, and Shopify opened pay-per-sale Shop Campaigns to UK merchants.
Regular pay growth cooled to 3.4% as vacancies fell again, inflation eased to 2.6% in the last reading before the Bank’s 30 July decision, and functional health drove an 18% rise in UK food and drink M&A.
GDP edged back to growth in May, the Chancellor expanded the Growth Guarantee Scheme by £6.5bn, and the supplement market kept reorganising around GLP-1 weight-loss medication.
A quieter news week, so a look further down the track: the Bank of England on where debt-servicing pressure is building, HMRC’s finding that smaller companies are now most of the tax gap, and a consultation that could make Direct Debit mandatory for VAT and PAYE.
Real household income and the saving ratio both fell even as GDP grew, June retail trading was the weakest for the season in over two years, and businesses are still weighing conflict and energy risk into their plans.
A second month of contraction with services at a three-year low, a change of prime minister and the planning question it raises, and Goldman calling the pound the most overvalued currency in the G10.
Inflation steady on the surface while services run hot and the Bank holds, the ASA's latest rulings turning ad claims into a spend-and-risk question, and what Danone's move for Huel says about building for exit.
April's first monthly contraction of the year, a global whey shortage pushing protein costs to record highs, and the margin squeeze sitting under a smaller-price-rises headline.
The week's labour-cost signal, the pricing warning under a strong manufacturing figure, and where challenger supplement brands are taking share.
A strong quarter with a softer picture underneath, the cost-base question inside the Employment Rights Act, and the cash-flow pattern beneath rising confidence.
A single month of easing against the Bank's own profile, the detail hidden under a weak retail headline, and where the sector is placing its growth bets.
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