Baseline: the weekly read.

Every Friday, Baseline covers the macro, sector and regulatory developments that matter to founder-led UK Ltd businesses, weighted toward health optimisation brands. Each edition turns the week's headline numbers into the questions worth acting on.

Insights: first-person pieces.

Occasional longer reads from Ross Radford on finance, endurance and building founder-led businesses. Where Baseline reads the week, Insights steps back.

Recent writing.

The list populates from published posts, newest first. Baseline editions and Insights pieces both appear here, each on its own page.

07
Aug
— 7 August 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 7 August 2026 - shop prices held down as costs build, essentials lead Amazon’s growth, and UK manufacturing slows

Shop price inflation slowed to 0.9% as retailers held shelf prices through promotions while their costs build, Amazon’s online store sales rose 15% with everyday essentials growing fastest, and the UK manufacturing PMI was revised down to a four-month low.

31
Jul
— 31 July 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 31 July 2026 - the Bank holds 6-3, online’s highest retail share since 2021, and pay-per-sale acquisition arrives in the UK

The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote with the dissent arguing for a rise, online took 29.4% of June retail spending, its highest share since April 2021, and Shopify opened pay-per-sale Shop Campaigns to UK merchants.

24
Jul
— 24 July 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 24 July 2026 - pay growth cools as the jobs market loosens, inflation eases ahead of the rate decision, and functional health drives food and drink M&A

Pay growth cooled to 3.4% as the jobs market loosened, inflation eased to 2.6% ahead of the Bank’s 30 July decision, and functional health drove an 18% rise in UK food and drink M&A.

23
Jul
— 23 July 2026 · Insights

The selling you can’t outsource

Two habits from Dame Prue Leith’s Xerocon conversation: selling your own work, and growing on money you already have.

17
Jul
— 17 July 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 17 July 2026 - the economy returns to growth, a £6.5bn boost to the Growth Guarantee Scheme, and how GLP-1 is reshaping the supplement market

The economy edged back to growth in May, the Chancellor added £6.5bn to the Growth Guarantee Scheme, and the supplement market kept reorganising around GLP-1, with a course record on Corsica to close.

16
Jul
— 16 July 2026 · Insights

The margin that protects the mission

What Louis Theroux’s conversation at Xerocon says about running the numbers without losing the reason you started.

14
Jul
— 14 July 2026 · Insights

The 10x question

A line from Xerocon on where the value of AI actually sits, and a session that showed what it looks like in practice.

10
Jul
— 10 July 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 10 July 2026 - where the Bank sees debt pressure building, what HMRC’s tax gap figures mean for smaller companies, and a proposed Direct Debit change for VAT and PAYE

A quieter news week, so a look further down the track: the Bank of England on where debt-servicing pressure is building, HMRC’s finding that smaller companies are now most of the tax gap, and a consultation that could make Direct Debit mandatory for VAT and PAYE.

03
Jul
— 3 July 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 3 July 2026 - household income falls, retail trading hits a two-year low for the season, and the cost backdrop holds firm

Real household income and the saving ratio both fell even as GDP grew, June retail trading was the weakest for the season in over two years, and businesses are still weighing conflict and energy risk into their plans.

01
Jul
— 1 July 2026 · Insights

The level you fall to

A talk on resilience, and the financial practices a business leans on when pressure arrives.

26
Jun
— 26 June 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 26 June 2026 - the economy contracts again, politics shifts, and the pound looks stretched

A second month of contraction with services at a three-year low, a change of prime minister and the planning question it raises, and Goldman calling the pound the most overvalued currency in the G10.

24
Jun
— 24 June 2026 · Insights

Principles are few

Two ideas from Andrew Huberman’s HX26 talk, applied to how a founder runs the numbers.

19
Jun
— 19 June 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 19 June 2026 - the Bank holds as services inflation climbs, and scrutiny tightens on health brands

Inflation steady on the surface while services run hot and the Bank holds, the ASA's latest rulings turning ad claims into a spend-and-risk question, and what Danone's move for Huel says about building for exit.

17
Jun
— 17 June 2026 · Insights

Negative splits for founders

The two races a founder runs, and why the second is a financial one.

12
Jun
— 12 June 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 12 June 2026 - the economy stalls, protein costs spike, and the margin squeeze persists

April's first monthly contraction of the year, a global whey shortage pushing protein costs to record highs, and the margin squeeze sitting under a smaller-price-rises headline.

05
Jun
— 5 June 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 5 June 2026 - OECD jobs warning, manufacturing cost pressure, and a shifting supplements market

The week's labour-cost signal, the pricing warning under a strong manufacturing figure, and where challenger supplement brands are taking share.

29
May
— 29 May 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 29 May 2026 - Q1 growth holds, employment law shifts, and SME confidence climbs

A strong quarter with a softer picture underneath, the cost-base question inside the Employment Rights Act, and the cash-flow pattern beneath rising confidence.

22
May
— 22 May 2026 · Baseline

Week ending 22 May 2026 - inflation eases, retail softens, and the supplements sector sets its bets

A single month of easing against the Bank's own profile, the detail hidden under a weak retail headline, and where the sector is placing its growth bets.

30
Apr
— 30 April 2026 · Insights

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